Switching power limiting phenomenon one after another
China’s GDP surpassed Japan for the first time in the second quarter, ranking second in the world, but its energy consumption was one of the highest in the world. The phenomenon of power cuts and power shortages continued to rise. Coal net imports soared, and imports of steel and iron ore hit record highs. The price of world commodities has been pushed up again and again. China’s coal consumption per unit of GDP is 15 times that of Japan and 8.7 times that of the United States. China’s coal consumption accounts for 70% of total energy consumption. At this rate, where does China's energy gap supplement? To this end, this reporter conducted a number of interviews.
Phenomenon: Net importers of coal exporters
While China's GDP has surpassed Japan this year, so has its urgency. China’s energy crisis has become increasingly urgent.
In August, a manager at the Zhongcheng Cement Plant in Huaibei City, Anhui Province, said that they had received notice of power cuts for only one month two days before the power outage. The neighboring Jiangsu Province has also adopted similar power cuts to ease power demand. It was at a time when manufacturers across the country were experiencing power outages due to power shortages.
In the first half of this year, China’s coal import and export continued its net import trend since last year. In the first half of the year, the monthly import volume has been maintained at more than 10 million tons. In the first half of the year, the net import volume almost doubled year-on-year. Analysts believe that the rebound in international coal prices in the second half of the year may make China's imports slightly lower than the first half, but the annual net import is a foregone conclusion, and the possibility of maintaining large imports in the next two or three years is very high.
The reporter has learned that in recent years, every time when it enters the peak season of using coal in winter and summer, the supply of coal in many areas in China is nearly 30%. “If the coal price rises to ten thousand yuan or one ton in the future, coal is not enough,†said Hou Wenjin, deputy inspector of the Shanxi Provincial Coal Department, in an interview with this reporter. “The demand for thermal power is too strong. Last year was November and December. Demand for thermal power in the country has increased by about 40% year-on-year, resulting in a gap between supply and demand that has caused China's 3 billion tons of coal per year to be insufficient.If the Chinese economy continues to operate in accordance with the current coal supply gap, experts predict that coal in Shanxi Province should be 20 years from now. All the excavation is completed."
Imports of petroleum and iron ore hit record highs
Since 1993, China has become a net oil importer for the first time. After the United States, China became the world’s second largest oil consumer. At present, China's foreign oil dependence has reached 55%. It is estimated that by 2015, China will rely on imports of 2/3 of its required oil. Judging from the experience of various countries, it is a warning line that the degree of foreign oil dependence is 50%.
Goldman Sachs Bank analysts said that the global crude oil supply may be tight in the second half of this year: “We think global crude oil inventories will begin to decline in the second half of 2010 and will tend to the seasonal average by the end of the year as we expect onshore crude oil inventories to follow in recent months. The decline in the volume of floating crude oil in the sea has decreased. We expect the global oil market will be tight in the afternoon, which will push WTI oil prices to a range of 85 to 95 US dollars per barrel in the second half of 2010."
At the same time, China’s imports of steel and iron ore have repeatedly hit record highs since the world’s financial crisis.
Reason: Cheaper than renewable energy is the main reason
The inexpensiveness of non-renewable energy such as coal water and electricity is an important reason for the consumption of energy by enterprises and enterprises in China.
An industry insider analyzed with reporters yesterday that at present, the average price of coal-fired electricity in China is 0.3 yuan per degree, 0.6 yuan per degree of wind power, and 4 yuan per degree of solar energy. Cheap coal power has increased China’s reliance on coal and can use one day a day.
In addition, the reality in recent years has proved that although the absolute scale of renewable energy sources has increased year by year, the proportion of total energy consumption has shown a downward trend. The proportion of China’s coal in total energy consumption is as high as 70%, far higher than the world average of 29.2%. The proportion of clean energy products, such as oil and gas, in energy consumption is obviously low. In particular, the proportion of natural gas in the total energy consumption is only 3.8%, which is far below the world average of 24.1%.
Second, the backwardness in the level of production and mode is also an important cause of China's energy crisis. It is understood that coal consumption per unit of GDP is 15 times that of Japan and 8.7 times that of the United States.
Third, in the composition of China's GDP, investment has always been the main way. At present, all major agencies generally predict that China's economic growth rate in 2010 will be higher than in 2009, among which, fixed asset investment will still maintain a growth rate of around 25%. This means that in the growth of China's GDP, there are quite a few components that are built on energy consumption. Because the coal-fired power, iron and steel, cement, and chemical industries account for about 90% of the coal consumed each year, the growth in the thermal power, steel, cement, and chemical industries is mainly due to the demand for investment growth. At present, China has entered a stage of rapid development of passenger vehicles, which will also lead to a rapid increase in gasoline consumption.
Way out: enlist energy tax to optimize consumption structure
The reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that China will intensify energy-saving measures to ease energy shortages. Considering the scale, economy, cleanliness and safety of various energy products, natural gas will be the main choice for optimizing energy consumption structure in China. In addition, we will vigorously develop new energy sources such as solar energy.
Deng Yusong of the Development Research Center of the State Council pointed out that due to the fact that no competitive market structure has been established in the fields of oil and natural gas, China's energy product pricing is actually determined by linking “cost plus†to alternative energy prices. The approach cannot fully reflect the changes in resource scarcity, market supply and demand, and environmental costs. It is recommended that the reform of the energy industry be further promoted. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on promoting the reform of the petroleum distribution system and enhancing the competitiveness of the refined oil market. At the same time, the level of supervision on resource monopolies should be further improved to lay a foundation for the gradual improvement of the pricing mechanism for resource monopoly.
The National Energy Administration also stated that it timely introduced the energy tax ad valorem assessment and returned it to the local government. From the annual collection of energy tax revenue of 30 billion yuan, it is expected to exceed the amount of 100 billion yuan, which will improve energy in the central and western regions. Rich but economically backward provinces have financial conditions.
The real reason for the net import of coal: The high cost of monopoly transport in rail transport is significant at home and abroad.
Although China is the largest producer of coal, most of the resources are concentrated in the west. “From a cost perspective, coal transportation is not as good as importing from overseas. Take thermal coal as an example. In recent years, China’s thermal coal has been in a hurry, indicating that the coal supply lines that were originally arranged from western Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were saturated. If imported from the sea, Sometimes the price is relatively cheap."
“In 2009, China became a net importer of coal, mainly due to the price difference between China and other countries.†In particular, the domestic coal negotiations failed in 2009 and the contract was not signed. At the same time, coal prices in the international market fell, resulting in higher domestic coal prices than international coal prices. . In China, due to coal integration, the limited capacity recovery and the monopoly of railway transportation have also affected supply.
Oil imports rely on breaking the security cordon: China's foreign oil dependence is as high as 52%
Judging from the experience of various countries, the degree of dependence on foreign oil reaching 50% is a "security cordon." According to some experts, China’s foreign oil dependence has reached 55%, and it has actually broken through this warning line. Therefore, many experts believe that this means that China's energy environment has shifted from "safer" to "more insecure."
Some western developed countries and some emerging industrial countries are also working hard to establish their own oil reserve system after the second oil crisis. In spite of the oil crisis in which oil prices fluctuate greatly in 2008, China's oil reserves are still at a relatively low level and can only last for about one month. Once the supply of oil is interrupted, China will fall into a serious energy crisis.