After experiencing a long period of turmoil, aluminum prices are worried about policy risks in the afternoon. In fact, the current situation is clear. Last Friday, the Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI for November increased by 5.1% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations. Before that, the market generally expected figures of 4.6% and 4.8% to be less than 5%. The market's expected interest rate hike did not happen, and the central bank continued to adopt a monetary tightening approach to increase the deposit reserve ratio. On Friday evening, the central bank announced that it will increase the deposit reserve for deposit-taking financial institutions from December 20, 2010. The rate of gold is 0.5%. This will further freeze 300 billion yuan of funds.
Since the fall of aluminum prices in mid-November, the price of aluminum has been stable within a certain range and has not shown a clear trend. The main contract 1103 mainly hovered between 16200 and 16500 yuan/t, while the spot price mainly oscillated around 16,000 yuan/t. The aluminum price has neither an upward driving force nor a large downward momentum.
This long-term fluctuation in aluminum prices in one position, the stability of prices reflects the balance between rising and falling forces has not yet been broken. The demand side of aluminum has not been severely damaged so far. From the real estate and automobile data, the downstream demand continues to maintain a good trend. Statistics released by the Statistics Bureau last week showed that the area of ​​new houses started in November reached 134 million square meters, down 17.90% year-on-year. This is related to the high base of the same period last year. In October, the figure was 124 million square meters, an increase of 8.06%. The area of ​​sales in November was 101 million square meters, an increase of 14.33% over the same period last year. It was 9.78% higher than the 92 million square meters in October. The investment in real estate development was 4,269.7 billion yuan, an increase of 36.54% year-on-year. Judging from these figures, although real estate was affected by the central control policy at the end of September, the downstream demand remained unabated, indicating that the rigid demand for domestic real estate was strong. Although speculative demand was repeatedly suppressed, the total demand for real estate was still high. Stay firmer. Another detail that deserves attention is the development of the company's actions. While banks are continuously tightening credit, development companies must look for more sources of funding, and sales revenue will likely become an important source of funding for future development companies. In the future, development companies must speed up the pace of promotion. For the domestic real estate market, supply will increase, and housing prices may also be affected by the decline, but there is a positive role for the aluminum industry. As long as real estate transactions increase, downstream aluminum demand may increase.
From the data released in November, the demand remained strong. Automobile Industry Association released data show that in November China's auto production and sales once again reached the recent high point, the output is set a new monthly high. Production and sales were 1,754,800 units and 1,697,000 units respectively. The increase was 13.67% and 10.10%. The strong performance of November data on the one hand reflects the strong downstream demand, on the other hand, it is also related to market concerns. One is to worry about the cancellation of preferential policies for automobile purchase tax next year, and the other is to worry about the introduction of a partial urban governance block plan. The high level of data in November is likely to be advanced in advance sales for the next year.
However, the buoyant demand of the downstream has not been able to shake up the aluminum prices. The nearly one-month horizontal consolidation of aluminum prices has shown that demand alone cannot dominate the trend of aluminum prices. The tightening of macroeconomic policies has become a general trend. And the effect of such tightening on aluminum prices will only be a matter of time.
The tightening of policies has actually taken place. The central bank adjusted the deposit reserve ratio three times in the near term. The current deposit reserve ratio has risen to 18.5%. Although this is already a historical high, it still cannot eliminate the possibility of further increase. In fact, there is still much room for raising interest rates. If inflation continues to exist, it is imperative for the central bank to adopt further tightening policies.
The Central Economic Work Conference adjusted monetary policy from a "moderately loose monetary policy" to a "prudent monetary policy," and we can also see the tone of the policy shift from the point of reference alone.
If the above events express the events that have already occurred, the fact that the CPI is as high as 5.1% in November may lead to further tightening policies.
The annual inflation target originally set by China was 3%, but as we can see from the figure below, since the beginning of July, the CPI has exceeded this target for 5 consecutive months, and the 5.1% level is already the year’s inflation. 1.7 times the target. There are two reasons why we believe that tightening policy is imperative. One is that from a historical point of view, the central government has relatively firm execution power over the economic goals that have been completed throughout the year. We can see from last year's Bao 8 that we can see from the central to the local, from the fiscal policy to the monetary policy, all policies are centered around this core; and 2010 is obviously a year of protection, but from the current Looking at the situation, the three are afraid that they will not be able to maintain their lives. However, if they can't keep their lives in 2010, they will have to continue to protect them in 2011. In addition, we can also see the attitude of the government from the implementation of energy-saving emission reduction policies. Basically, after a goal is formulated, it will surely follow through to the end. The other is the danger of inflation so that the government will pay attention to this issue. The inflation issue is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it is a very important event that concerns the social harmony and stability. Both of the above points can shed light on the direction of future central policies: whether to raise interest rates or raise the deposit reserve ratio or price controls. What is the form that can be adopted in tightening policies is not important. What is important is that these policies are for the macro economy. Impact, the impact on the aluminum price has a directional consistency, that is to say constitute negative effects. This alone is enough to put pressure on aluminum prices. The current demand situation is still good, but we can't guarantee that this demand is good and sustainable. However, the policy tightening will at the same time suppress the aluminum price independently. If the downstream demand suffers from the decline in the tightening policy in the future, it will be difficult for the aluminum price to escape the downside risk.
Since the fall of aluminum prices in mid-November, the price of aluminum has been stable within a certain range and has not shown a clear trend. The main contract 1103 mainly hovered between 16200 and 16500 yuan/t, while the spot price mainly oscillated around 16,000 yuan/t. The aluminum price has neither an upward driving force nor a large downward momentum.
This long-term fluctuation in aluminum prices in one position, the stability of prices reflects the balance between rising and falling forces has not yet been broken. The demand side of aluminum has not been severely damaged so far. From the real estate and automobile data, the downstream demand continues to maintain a good trend. Statistics released by the Statistics Bureau last week showed that the area of ​​new houses started in November reached 134 million square meters, down 17.90% year-on-year. This is related to the high base of the same period last year. In October, the figure was 124 million square meters, an increase of 8.06%. The area of ​​sales in November was 101 million square meters, an increase of 14.33% over the same period last year. It was 9.78% higher than the 92 million square meters in October. The investment in real estate development was 4,269.7 billion yuan, an increase of 36.54% year-on-year. Judging from these figures, although real estate was affected by the central control policy at the end of September, the downstream demand remained unabated, indicating that the rigid demand for domestic real estate was strong. Although speculative demand was repeatedly suppressed, the total demand for real estate was still high. Stay firmer. Another detail that deserves attention is the development of the company's actions. While banks are continuously tightening credit, development companies must look for more sources of funding, and sales revenue will likely become an important source of funding for future development companies. In the future, development companies must speed up the pace of promotion. For the domestic real estate market, supply will increase, and housing prices may also be affected by the decline, but there is a positive role for the aluminum industry. As long as real estate transactions increase, downstream aluminum demand may increase.
From the data released in November, the demand remained strong. Automobile Industry Association released data show that in November China's auto production and sales once again reached the recent high point, the output is set a new monthly high. Production and sales were 1,754,800 units and 1,697,000 units respectively. The increase was 13.67% and 10.10%. The strong performance of November data on the one hand reflects the strong downstream demand, on the other hand, it is also related to market concerns. One is to worry about the cancellation of preferential policies for automobile purchase tax next year, and the other is to worry about the introduction of a partial urban governance block plan. The high level of data in November is likely to be advanced in advance sales for the next year.
However, the buoyant demand of the downstream has not been able to shake up the aluminum prices. The nearly one-month horizontal consolidation of aluminum prices has shown that demand alone cannot dominate the trend of aluminum prices. The tightening of macroeconomic policies has become a general trend. And the effect of such tightening on aluminum prices will only be a matter of time.
The tightening of policies has actually taken place. The central bank adjusted the deposit reserve ratio three times in the near term. The current deposit reserve ratio has risen to 18.5%. Although this is already a historical high, it still cannot eliminate the possibility of further increase. In fact, there is still much room for raising interest rates. If inflation continues to exist, it is imperative for the central bank to adopt further tightening policies.
The Central Economic Work Conference adjusted monetary policy from a "moderately loose monetary policy" to a "prudent monetary policy," and we can also see the tone of the policy shift from the point of reference alone.
If the above events express the events that have already occurred, the fact that the CPI is as high as 5.1% in November may lead to further tightening policies.
The annual inflation target originally set by China was 3%, but as we can see from the figure below, since the beginning of July, the CPI has exceeded this target for 5 consecutive months, and the 5.1% level is already the year’s inflation. 1.7 times the target. There are two reasons why we believe that tightening policy is imperative. One is that from a historical point of view, the central government has relatively firm execution power over the economic goals that have been completed throughout the year. We can see from last year's Bao 8 that we can see from the central to the local, from the fiscal policy to the monetary policy, all policies are centered around this core; and 2010 is obviously a year of protection, but from the current Looking at the situation, the three are afraid that they will not be able to maintain their lives. However, if they can't keep their lives in 2010, they will have to continue to protect them in 2011. In addition, we can also see the attitude of the government from the implementation of energy-saving emission reduction policies. Basically, after a goal is formulated, it will surely follow through to the end. The other is the danger of inflation so that the government will pay attention to this issue. The inflation issue is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it is a very important event that concerns the social harmony and stability. Both of the above points can shed light on the direction of future central policies: whether to raise interest rates or raise the deposit reserve ratio or price controls. What is the form that can be adopted in tightening policies is not important. What is important is that these policies are for the macro economy. Impact, the impact on the aluminum price has a directional consistency, that is to say constitute negative effects. This alone is enough to put pressure on aluminum prices. The current demand situation is still good, but we can't guarantee that this demand is good and sustainable. However, the policy tightening will at the same time suppress the aluminum price independently. If the downstream demand suffers from the decline in the tightening policy in the future, it will be difficult for the aluminum price to escape the downside risk.