According to statistics, the national industrial policy is the sum of all policies that the government has to intervene in the formation and development of the industry in order to achieve certain economic and social goals. Its role is to make up for market deficiencies, effectively allocate resources; protect the growth of young ethnic enterprises; iron out economic shocks; play a late-advantage, and enhance adaptability. Looking back at 2011, the state adjusted a number of industrial policies in order to promote stable economic development. Central bank interest rate increases, purchase restrictions and other series of measures will inevitably have a fundamental impact on the hardware industry. The national hope policy can change the past blind pursuit of high value-added products, the pursuit of quality development strategy, encourage companies to respect their market needs according to their own development, take the road of differentiated development.
After the release of these industrial policies, is China's hardware industry ushering in healthy development, or is it a more tortuous road? It may be useful to explore the pros and cons of adjusted industrial institutions.
The central bank raises interest rates:
On the last day of the Lunar New Year holiday (Gan New Year's Day), the Central Bank announced to the public that since February 9, 2011, financial institutions have raised their benchmark interest rates. The one-year benchmark deposit rate of financial institutions increased by 0.25 percentage point, while the interest rate over five years or more related to mortgages increased by only 0.2%, but its interest rate reached a high of 6.60%.
It is understood that due to the increase in the cost of funds caused by the increase in interest rates, it will be inevitable for hardware manufacturers to have an impact. According to industry insiders, China’s interest rate hikes will reduce investment momentum in fixed assets, which will affect the demand for hardware products in the short-term and bring downward pressure on the hardware market. However, raising the interest rate will also increase the cost of funds for Chinese hardware companies, which is not conducive to fund raising by enterprises. However, it may reduce the momentum of expansion of hardware companies in the long term, and the industrial economy is expected to continue to stabilize. Therefore, China's interest rate hike is short-term bearish for the hardware industry, which will be beneficial for a long time.
Some experts have analyzed that the price of hardware products will not be affected by the rate hike in the short term. First of all, in hardware trading, many hardware dealers have signed large purchase orders with manufacturing companies years ago. This part of the price has been solidified, and the impact of raising interest rates will not be affected. Second, at present, the hardware manufacturing industry is basically in a state of oversupply, and there are large chips in the hands of manufacturers. Therefore, even if the actual cost of funds increases, the price fluctuations are limited.
On the other hand, as the most important force among Chinese enterprises, the hardware and hardware enterprises are mostly in the hardware industry, the investment of the enterprise managers is small, and the asset-liability ratio is not high. Therefore, the risk of increasing the cost of production and declining corporate profits is not high. On the contrary, in order to increase profit margins, these companies will inevitably increase R&D efforts, improve product quality and grades, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the hardware industry.
Purchase restriction order:
The state has recently introduced the "new country eight" policy, so that "restriction order" once again become the "first mine" of the real estate market this spring. The number of cities that will implement the “restriction order†this year will increase to 72. There is no doubt that the "restriction order" is to be overweight.
According to Centaline Property statistics, the number of new customers and sources of second-hand housing stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Tianjin have all fallen sharply since February, and owners have begun to reluctantly sell, and home buyers have begun to wait and see. Due to the most restrictive purchase conditions, the probability of a decline in the volume of housing transactions in Beijing is 90%.
Shows that the “restricted purchase order†has caused the property market to fall into a state of depression, and the reduction in the number of home buyers has affected the sound development of the hardware industry to some extent. As the downstream industrial chain of the real estate industry, what are the fluctuations in many sub-sectors of the hardware industry?
Wire and cable is an indispensable building material in the real estate industry. With the implementation of the “restricted purchase order†of real estate, it will also be affected. However, as China’s investment in power grids and the construction of light rails will bring greater development to wire and cable. Opportunities, especially the annual growth of power conductors and cables, can reach 15%.
The wooden door market has been trapped in the turbulent adjustment of the upstream real estate market in the past two years. On the one hand, it looks forward to spring on the one hand and actively warms on the other. The hard work of "R&D" in the wooden door industry seems to be somewhat weak, but the soft measures of "marketing" have come somewhat stronger. Especially in the recent two consecutive years of the wooden door industry, the development of wooden doors has become even more "weak."
Some media reports that although the "restricted purchase order" and the introduction of various real estate macroeconomic control policies have been gradually introduced, it will have a negative impact on the construction machinery industry, but affordable housing will, to some extent, reduce the impact of real estate regulation. In addition, the increase in “No. 1†water conservancy construction investment will also support the construction machinery industry.