Affected by factors such as power cuts caused by energy conservation and emission reduction, cement and steel prices have recently risen. Who will be the next target for rising?
Industry insiders told reporters on the 6th that the increase in cement and steel prices may drive coal prices to follow suit, but in the overall balance of supply and demand, coal prices are unlikely to rise.
Coal downstream cement steel price increase
The reporter noted that under the effect of the energy-saving and emission-reduction policy, the recent cement price (especially the southeast coastal power-restricted area) has risen significantly.
“We learned from Guangxi that in order to complete the energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the government has notified all regions to implement power curtailment measures, which means that cement prices in the region will also rise,†said Wang Xiaoliang, an analyst with Digital Cement.
According to reports, the relevant departments of Guangxi have notified the cement enterprises that they will supply power to the cement enterprises from September 4 to the end of December, that is, the cement enterprises will not be able to produce normally in the next four months.
“The reduction of electricity will inevitably reduce the supply of cement in Guangxi, and the price of cement in the market will inevitably rise.†Wang Xiaoliang pointed out that after September, the cement industry has a traditional peak season, cement demand has entered a peak period, and production has decreased. It is expected that the region will be in the next week or two. The price of cement exceeds 400 yuan / ton.
The reporter learned that in order to achieve energy-saving emission reduction targets, since the end of July, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hainan, Guangdong and other provinces have begun to implement power-limiting measures, and cement prices have risen. Cement prices in Hainan Province have risen by 20% from July.
In addition, the steel industry, as a major energy consumer, has also become a key power limiting target. The reporter learned that Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hebei, and Shanxi provinces have issued clear production-restriction plans, and steel prices have risen.
Coal prices will be more resilient
Some industry analysts believe that the recovery of profits in the downstream energy-intensive industries such as cement and steel means that coal prices will be more tolerant, which in turn will drive up coal prices. However, experts pointed out that due to the current balance of supply and demand for coal, coal prices will not rise sharply.
From the actual market situation, affected by the improvement of downstream steel and coke market, coupled with the tight supply of coking coal resources, the price of coking coal in some areas such as Linyi in Shanxi increased by 20-50 yuan/ton last week.
"Under the downstream industry, the price of coking coal has risen recently, and the coal industry may indeed usher in the overall price increase, but the magnitude will not be very large." Hao Xiangbin, director of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association.
He told reporters, according to the coal supply and demand, this year the coal industry will present "balanced, smooth, gentle" and "three flat" trend.
In this regard, BOC International Analysis pointed out that although the price of coking coal pit in Shanxi rose by 1%-2% on a week-on-week basis, “there is no incentive to see a sharp rise in coking coal prices, and it is expected to be stable in the future.†It is pointed out that in the process of seasonal factors gradually disappearing, the price of thermal coal may still fall, but there is not much room for decline.
Reporters learned that, Qinhuangdao Port coal market barometer of the national inventory is still high, as of September 3, stocks of 7.32 million tons. At the same time, Guangzhou Port's coal storage was 2,605,800 tons, up by 113,700 tons from last week, which means that the coal supply is generally sufficient.
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