According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 23rd, in the first 10 months of this year, China’s foreign trade exports were 957.36 billion U.S. dollars, down 20.5% year-on-year; imports were 798.13 billion U.S. dollars, down 19% year-on-year. As the export price fell by 6.4%, after deducting the price factor, the export decreased by 15.1%, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the decline in the previous nine months; the import price fell by 16.9% overall. After deducting the price factor, the import volume decreased by 2.5%. The monthly decline narrowed by 1 percentage point.
October data did not exceed expectations or was related to less workdays. In October, China’s foreign trade exports reached 110.76 billion US dollars. After deducting price factors, the number of exports decreased by 5.6%, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the decline in September; imports were 86.78 billion US dollars. After deducting the price factor, the import volume increased by 6.8%, down 7.1 percentage points from September.
Although the monthly export value in October exceeded $100 billion for four consecutive months, exports did not recover as strongly as the market expected. Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, said that the number of working days in October this year was small, making the situation of export improvement not obvious in the year-on-year data. According to past experience, except for October 2008, since 2000, the number of working days has a very good correspondence with the import and export. Therefore, this does not mean that China's export improvement situation has once again stalled.
Bilateral trade with the United States is better than Europe and Japan Since the beginning of this year, the increasingly frequent trade has also adversely affected China's export situation. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, 19 countries initiated 88 trade remedy investigations on Chinese products, involving a total of 10.2 billion US dollars. The number of investigation cases and the total number of cases involved increased by 29% and 125% respectively over the same period of the previous year. In particular, the recent US move to trade protection of Chinese products has caused people to worry whether trade friction will affect China's foreign trade situation.
According to customs statistics, from January to October, the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States was 239.36 billion U.S. dollars, down 14.9% year-on-year. The bilateral trade of Sino-US trade fell less than the same period last year, 3.8 and 4.4 percentage points lower against the EU and Japan, accounting for the same period. China's total import and export value of 13.6%.
In the same period, the EU continued to maintain its position as China's largest trading partner and the largest export market. The bilateral trade value of China and the EU was US$292.42 billion, down 18.7% year-on-year, accounting for 16.7% of China's total import and export value during the same period.
Jin Baisong, a researcher at the China Foreign Trade Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that trade friction is normal. Since the financial crisis, although China’s exports have been declining, other countries have fallen more, and China’s export share is actually increasing. More foreign trade of some commodities has even increased substantially, so friction is inevitable. However, the overall amount of foreign trade is very limited, and will not affect the situation of China's foreign trade stabilization and recovery.
Imports of bulk commodities have increased According to statistics, from January to October, China's major bulk commodity imports have increased to varying degrees. Imported primary products were US$227.21 billion, down 29.4% year-on-year, accounting for 28.5% of China's total imports during the same period. The import volume of major commodities increased to varying degrees, including iron ore imports of 510 million tons, an increase of 36.8%; crude oil of 170 million tons, an increase of 9.4%; soybeans of 34.88 million tons, an increase of 13.2%; primary shape of plastics of 1.76 million tons, The increase was 30.6%; the coal import was 9.87 million tons, an increase of 1.7 times.
In addition, statistics show that in the first 10 months of this year, the decline in exports of major labor-intensive products was generally small, and the year-on-year decline was less than the 20.5% decline in overall exports during the same period.
In the same period, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 564.64 billion US dollars, down 18.6% year-on-year, accounting for 59% of China's total export value in the same period. Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was US$236.72 billion, down 18.1%; the mechanical equipment was US$187.44 billion, down 17%.
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