Feng Fei: Four major problems in the transformation of new energy development

Sponsored by the Academic Guidance of the Development Research Center of the State Council and organized by the China Economic Times, the “China Economic Forward-looking Forum of the Second China” supported by the development strategy of the Development Research Center of the State Council and supported by the Regional Economic Research Department and the Ministry of Industry and Economic Research. Held on December 18-19 (Saturday, December) at Hilton Beijing. The theme is "'Twelfth Five-Year': Regional Economy/Energy Industry". The following speech of Feng Fei, Minister of Industry Research of the State Council Development Research Center:

Good afternoon, dear delegates, I am very honored to be able to attend the economic and economical forward-looking forum organized by China Economic Times and share with you on energy issues. The problem that has been given to me is the "12th Five-Year Plan" for energy. I would like to talk about my personal experience in this respect. The next speaker, Zhou Dadi, may have more say. I will talk about my personal experience.

Judging from the issues considered in the “12th Five-Year Plan” energy planning, I think there are two new factors besides the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” that considers the continuous increase of energy and resource pressures caused by the economic society and the highlight of energy security issues. The first factor, the transformation of the global energy economy, especially after the financial crisis, green development and green recovery have become a very hot topic in the world, and low-carbon economy should be said to be the first signs. The second factor, the consideration of climate change issues, especially in Cancún, discusses the issue of a new round of governance framework for global climate change. I think it is mainly the consideration of two additional factors. In this context, what is the main line of energy development in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”? My personal experience is that the transformation of energy development methods is the main line of energy development in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, like the "12th Five-Year Plan" economic society. Like the development plan, its main line lies in accelerating the economic development mode and transforming the economic development mode. The “12th Five-Year Plan” energy is also the way to transform energy development. How to turn? I want to talk about four issues:

The first question, like the one just mentioned by the host, Mr. Li Weidong, stated that there is no limit to the total amount of energy consumption. This is a topic that is more enthusiastic and difficult to determine. According to the central government’s proposal for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the total amount of resources and energy consumption must be set. As far as the energy sector is concerned, there is no set limit, and how much is set, and now it is initially considered that the total energy consumption in 2015 will be between 3.8 billion and 4 billion tons of standard coal. Is it based on such a data to set a ceiling for total consumption? My personal opinion is that if the ceiling is set, the kung fu will be in the demand policy instead of the supply policy. Because I think it is difficult to make clear the total energy consumption on the supply side, we look at the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and the “10th Five-Year Plan” energy development plan is not just energy. Almost all government five-year plans are even There is a big deviation between the annual plan and the actual implementation results. At that time, if we were to reflect on some of the lessons learned in the planning process of the 11th Five-Year Plan period, we would not fully estimate its impact on the structural changes in economic development, such as the problem of accelerating the development of heavy chemical industry, and how it is in the energy sector. What kind of impact does it have and how much impact does it have. As far as the industrialization of China is concerned, because I am the Ministry of Industry, industrialization is also the scope of our research. On the whole, the “12th Five-Year Plan” may be in the transitional stage, and the transition from the middle to the late stage of industrialization to the advanced stage is “10. The characteristics of the period of the Second Five-Year Plan, the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" may enter the advanced stage of industrialization. This is my overall judgment. Therefore, setting limits on such a period of possible structural and phase transitions may be a relatively large risk. This is the first question.

The second question is the adjustment of energy supply structure. As we all know, China’s energy supply structure is 70% coal-based, which is 40 points higher than the world average and much higher than the average OECD level. To adjust the energy supply structure, we should say that large targets, such as non-fossil fuels, account for 15% of the total by 2020, and such a long-term goal after 10 years will be determined. How is the goal of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan" implemented in five years? This is a very important issue. As of the end of last year, non-fossil energy accounted for 9.6% of China’s total energy consumption. My personal opinion during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period should grow to around 12%, which is non-fossil energy. Of course, among the non-fossil energy sources, the development of nuclear power, which is now more concerned, is a very important energy supply method for coal substitutes and is an alternative to coal. At present, China's nuclear power is under construction at the world's largest scale, and 25 nuclear power plants are under construction. It is estimated that by 2015 China's installed nuclear power capacity will increase from the current 10 million kilowatts to about 40 million kilowatts. In addition, the development of renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, solar energy. In the past four years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has increased by 100%. It is estimated that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power at the end of this year will be 40 million kilowatts, and it may still be the second largest in the world. However, the gap between China and the United States ranked first is very high. small.

There are many discussions in the development of wind power, such as whether wind power is going crazy, and it is developing too fast. How to comment on the development of renewable energy is not a healthy development? Is it too fast or not a problem? My personal opinion is two standards. If the relatively rapid development speed and technological progress of wind power can be synchronized and the cost reduction can be synchronized, I think the speed is no problem. The key lies in whether or not the problem of synchronization occurs. Now my personal opinion is that there are some problems. My personal opinion is that the focus of renewable energy is not just the expansion of the application scale, but the mastery of technology, and the real capacity of wind power and solar energy equipment based on independent technologies. form. I personally estimate that by 2015 China's wind power capacity will probably increase from 40 million kW at the end of this year to about 90 million kilowatts. At the same time, solar photovoltaic power generation is accelerating. This is from the perspective of non-fossil energy sources. Of course, there is the acceleration of hydropower development. China's hydropower resources are relatively abundant and it is the world's largest hydropower resource country. However, our development level is still low. Hydropower is also a clean energy source. The most important is the coal-fired energy with low economic cost. I want to speed up the development of hydropower and need to deal with environmental and ecological issues. There is not much debate about this. I personally estimate that by 2015, the installed capacity of hydropower will probably be from the current 200 million kilowatts to about 280 million kilowatts. This is the second issue, the adjustment of the supply structure.

The third problem is energy saving. In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, we set the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction, energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by 20%, and the total amount of CO2 and COD emissions is reduced by 10%. This is the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” target. One of the basic judgments of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is that the difficulty of energy conservation is greater than the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". My personal judgment is this. From the implementation of the first four years of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the cumulative decrease of 15.6%, how to achieve 15.6%? Our analysis is mainly industrial energy conservation, and there are two quantitative energy-saving approaches in the industry, namely, technology energy saving and structural energy saving. The contribution of technological energy saving is about 80%. In technology saving, on the one hand, the adoption of new energy-saving technologies, but the most important aspect is to eliminate outdated production capacity and achieve large-scale equipment to achieve such an energy-saving. In other words, the “12th Five-Year Plan” backward production capacity still exists, even if it is not small. When the previous paragraph went to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to discuss the industrial transformation plan, their data is that according to the current definition of backward production capacity, we have eliminated half of them. Half did not disappear. But I think the more difficult the future, the target in the end how much? Our research department did some calculations. If it can be achieved from an achievable point of view, it is roughly between 15% and 17%, which is the decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP. Some experts are more nervous and are a little taller. This is the goal of energy conservation.

The goal of emission reduction, in fact, the “12th Five-Year” Central Committee mentioned one sentence in the planning proposal. We may have noticed that it is necessary to increase the total amount of pollutants to be controlled. Just now, the total control of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" is the two major pollutants. What kinds of new total controls should be added to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"? Because it is not yet open, it is not easy to say, and it is considered that we should add new types of total control. Of course, there is also a very important indicator, that is, to deal with climate change to achieve carbon dioxide intensity reduction. Everyone knows that by 2020, China’s carbon intensity reduction target is 40%-45%. The base year is 2005 and how the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” considers the emission reduction targets for carbon dioxide. In fact, there are three major ways to reduce CO2 emissions: the first is to rely on energy conservation; the second is to optimize the energy structure, especially the development of low-carbon energy, and the carbon conversion factor of energy consumption will be correspondingly The third approach is to increase carbon sinks, forest carbon sinks, and grassland carbon sinks, as well as adding new technologies, such as CCS carbon capture and sequestration technologies, to achieve carbon reduction. It can be judged that the goal of carbon intensity reduction is definitely higher than the goal of energy saving, that is, the emission reduction per unit of GDP dioxide dioxide must be higher than the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP. This is the third issue.

The fourth issue is to promote the reform of energy systems and mechanisms. The most important thing in the transformation and transformation of energy development is to create a system that is conducive to the transformation of institutional mechanisms. I think the most important contradictions in this are: First, the reform of the formation mechanism of energy product prices is actually implemented in the Central Government during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The planning proposal already mentions reforms to promote energy and resource pricing mechanisms. How to change? The direction of reform is actually very clear. It is to make the prices of energy and resource products reflect the scarcity of resources, supply and demand, and external costs of environmental damage. Of course, how to change? Gradually change? Which is the most critical area? My personal understanding, my personal point of view, is that electricity price reform is very central. Of course, we must also promote the reform of the formation mechanism of refined oil prices. The reform of electricity prices is not just a matter of energy. It is a strategic adjustment to changing economic development patterns and promoting economic structure. , I think it is a "nose", so the electricity price reform is very critical. This is the first consideration.

The second consideration, from the perspective of fiscal and taxation, is now considering the environmental tax. Everybody in the central government’s draft proposal has seen the need to promote the environmental tax and the reform of the resource tax, based on the pilot project in the Xinjiang region. Advance nationwide. How to change the resource tax? I originally solved three problems. Now we are mainly solving the problem of changing from quantity measurement to ad valorem. The so-called quantitative measurement means that regardless of whether the price is high or low, when it is 147 US dollars/barrel, or now it is 188 US$/barrel, the resource tax is the same. There is a problem here. Who is the benefit of resource bargaining? There is such a problem. Obviously, the resource tax is not correct. It is necessary to change the way that past quantitative measures are collected into ad valorem, and price hangs, to solve the problem that resource bargaining is monopolized by a few companies. This is another issue in fiscal and taxation. Now that there is a lot of discussion about carbon taxation, I think it is still a bit earlier to talk about carbon taxation during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, but we must study the carbon tax policy.

The most important issue is that at present, in order to accomplish the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, power cuts are limited, and electricity is almost universally difficult to use. Because electricity is almost difficult to price, the consumption of other energy types can activate data, and electricity is hard to move. Data, so power cuts have now become a means to complete energy-saving goals around. In other words, how to establish a long-term mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction is the most important. I think the long-term mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction is the composition of the three mechanisms. The first is the market mechanism, and it is also the core mechanism. The market mechanism is the best way to achieve the effectiveness of resource allocation. There is no other alternative. However, the most important thing in the market mechanism is a price signal, that is, through the reform of energy and resource price formation mechanisms to help reduce energy consumption. The basic mechanism in the long-term scheduling mechanism is the long-term mechanism. The second is the policy mechanism, including how to achieve sustainable development. The third is a regulatory mechanism, including energy audits, environmental supervision, and so on. That is, the long-term mechanism is in principle constituted by these three mechanisms. The most crucial is the mechanism of a market. Only in this way can the energy-saving behavior of the enterprise be truly endogenous and spontaneous. Otherwise, the cost of our supervision is too high. Administrative measures bring a series of problems. Today I introduced you here. Thank you!