China's PV market growth rate will slow down in the second half of the year

In the first half of the year, driven by the rapid growth of China's PV market, the company's capacity utilization rate was high, and the market was in a phase of supply shortage. Wang Bohua, Secretary-General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out in the "Photovoltaic Industry Development Review in the First Half of 2017 and the Situation Seminar in the Second Half of the Year" that China's PV market structure is gradually shifting from a terrestrial power station to a distributed photovoltaic power generation project, which lasted for the first half of 2016. The development trend of the year shows the characteristics of rapid growth in scale, excellent production capacity, application market and high industrialization level.
The photovoltaic industry has always been “over-expected development”, possessing positive and strategic advantages, and possessing strong international competitiveness and will maintain it for a long time. According to industry analysts, in the second half of 2017, the growth rate of China's PV domestic market will slow down, and international trade is still under pressure. In the short to medium term, the “630” overdrafted the market in the second half of the year to a certain extent.

Distributed PV applications began to diversify Driven by the global market, especially the market driven by China's “leaders” program, China's PV began to set off a new round of capacity expansion, and both concentrated in the field of high-efficiency products, which continued to show in the first half of the year. According to Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry continued to expand in the first half of the year, the cost continued to decline, the technology continued to improve, the development environment was further improved, and the distribution was “favored” by various enterprises, and application diversification began to appear. In the first half of the year, China's production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and modules reached 115,000 tons, 36 GW, 32 GW, and 34 GW, respectively, up 21.1%, 20%, 28%, and 25.9%.
In the first half of the year, China's new photovoltaic power generation installed capacity reached 23GW or more, an increase of 9% year-on-year, creating a new high in the same period. The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation exceeded 100GW for the first time. Among them, distributed photovoltaics installed more than 7GW, an increase of nearly three times. In the new installed capacity, distributed PV showed a faster development rate, accounting for about 30% of the total, an increase of 20%. Xing Yiteng, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, believes that the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has reached a new high in the first half of the year. On the one hand, due to the impact of price policies, investment companies hope to obtain higher feed-in tariffs; on the other hand, power demand growth and light rejection rate The decline has contributed, and the issue of renewable energy consumption has even been written into government work reports.
In the first half of the year, China's central and eastern regions still led the development of the national photovoltaic industry. The total installed capacity in the East China and Central China regions accounted for more than 50% of the national total. At the same time, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%. The phenomenon of photovoltaic light abandonment improved and the light rejection rate dropped to 7%. Xing Yiteng analyzed that the improvement of China's photovoltaic power generation has benefited mainly from three factors. First, China's overall power supply and demand situation in the first half of the year improved, and vigorously promoted power growth, providing greater room for consumption. Second, the state attaches great importance to the issue of new energy consumption, and has introduced a number of policies to directly abandon the phenomenon of abandoning the wind and abandoning the light. Third, the thermal power plant has improved the flexibility of thermal power through technological transformation, increased the intensity of thermal power peaking and frequency modulation, and provided more room for development of photovoltaic power generation.

Photovoltaic economic benefits show a diverging trend Due to the negative misunderstanding of the photovoltaic industry, such as deception, high energy consumption, high pollution, etc. has always been a stumbling block to the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, the photovoltaic industry must expand the global production capacity layout, optimize the domestic production capacity layout. Under the influence of the “One Belt and One Road” strategy guidance and the international trade protection situation, the overseas layout of China's PV companies accelerated in the first half of the year, the pace of “going out” accelerated, the capacity expansion remained strong, and the production layout became more rational, but China's PV trade protection disputes Constantly. With the establishment of overseas factories, the export market of components has changed from mature markets in Europe, America and Japan to emerging markets, including India, Brazil, Pakistan, Mexico, etc. The main export markets for silicon wafers are from Taiwan, China, to Southeast Asia, such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Transfer.
On April 1, Turkey decided to impose a five-year anti-dumping duty on China's PV module products. On April 17, Suniva, a US manufacturer of photovoltaic cells and components, filed for bankruptcy protection in a US court, and immediately filed a lawsuit against the US International Trade Commission on the basis of Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974, requiring all crystals imported into the United States. Silicon photovoltaic cells and components launched a global safeguards survey. If Article 201 passes and takes substantive measures, the United States will block the production capacity of PV companies including China's overseas factories and other countries and even US companies overseas.
In the first half of the year, China's photovoltaic economic benefits showed a differentiation trend. The first is the industry chain dimension. From the perspective of all links in the industrial chain, the profitability of photovoltaics has shown a downward trend from top to bottom, with the strongest silicon material link and weaker component links. From the perspective of specific products, the market is also showing a trend of differentiation, such as monocrystalline silicon wafers, high-efficiency cells, and high-efficiency components. The second is the time dimension. From the quarterly perspective, the first quarter was not prosperous in the market, the component prices were slightly depressed, and the profitability of most companies was generally poor. In the second quarter, market demand surged, prices also rebounded slightly, and corporate profitability began to increase. The third is the enterprise dimension. From the perspective of specific enterprises, there are still nearly 20% of enterprises showing losses. The main reason for the loss is the lack of capacity utilization. Before the financial burden was heavy, the industrial development was divided.

Photovoltaic cell production will reach a record high Wang Bohua believes that China's PV module production has dropped by nearly 25% in the past two years, and will continue to show a downward trend in the future. Photovoltaic power generation has been initially economical. It has been lower than traditional power supply costs in many places around the world, and it has achieved parity online access. Therefore, reducing non-technical costs as soon as possible is the key to promoting China's PV parity. In the long run, the global PV market has great potential for development. China's PV industry is fully equipped and has strong international competitiveness and will continue to be maintained. The approval of the Paris Agreement has laid a solid foundation for the development of the global PV market. The rapid decline of photovoltaic power generation costs has made it possible to promote the PV market. The diversification and diversification of PV applications provide a broad application space for the development of the PV market. Multi-energy complementarity and micro-network development Providing more consumption space for photovoltaic power; global demand is decentralized, emerging markets are beginning to develop in a large scale, and the “One Belt, One Road” international cooperation strategy promotes the development of emerging markets; in the context of the low-cost bid for the global PV market, China's photovoltaic industry Learning experience, organizational experience, management experience and cost-effectiveness still have a strong competitive advantage.
In the short to medium term, in the future, China's northwest region will have a severe power cut and may extend to North China or the central region. There is no effective solution mechanism for the PV subsidy gap in the short term, and the arrears will be more serious. The US launched the 201 survey and is expected to come out in the second half. As a result, coping with the unfavorable fear will form a containment for my photovoltaic industry.
Wang Bohua said that the domestic growth rate of China's PV market will slow down in the second half of the year, international trade is still under pressure, technical competition will be further intensified, and industrial upgrading will accelerate. It is expected that China's photovoltaic cell production will exceed 60GW in 2017, reaching a record high. At the same time, the development of China's photovoltaic industry faces many severe challenges such as the slowdown of the domestic market, international trade barriers, and continuous increase in domestic production capacity. Moreover, in 2017, China's domestic installed capacity will complete the "13th Five-Year" photovoltaic power generation installation target ahead of schedule, and the domestic market growth rate may decline in the next three years, so it cannot be blindly optimistic.

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