In the lead-up to the Spring Festival holiday, the steel market has gradually seen a decline in activity. With traders leaving early, the domestic steel market is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations during the week before the holiday (February 4–8, 2013). However, as the market anticipates a strong spring season, traders are likely to increase their winter stockpiles, and the "after-holiday" demand inertia suggests that the domestic steel market could see a gradual upward trend in the week following the holiday (February 18–22).
According to the weekly price forecast model from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, the domestic steel market will experience slight fluctuations before the holiday. After the holiday, prices are expected to rise slightly, with long products seeing a modest increase and plate markets showing more consistent growth. The Lange Steel Price Index is projected to hover around 154.9 points, with an average steel price of approximately 4,030 yuan. The long product index is expected to fluctuate around 168.4, increasing by about 1.0 point, while the sheet metal index is anticipated to reach around 138.6, up by roughly 1.2 points.
Market research from the same center also indicates that after the holiday, the long product market will see a small increase, and the plate market will rise steadily. Raw material prices, including iron ore, are expected to climb by 10–20 yuan, while coke prices remain stable. Scrap prices are predicted to rise by 30 yuan, and billet prices are expected to increase by 90–110 yuan.
Looking at the previous week (January 28–February 1), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index (LGMI) reached 153.8 points, reflecting a 0.69% weekly increase and a significant 8.79% drop compared to the same period last year. The long product index was at 167.4 points, rising 0.56% for the week, but down 12.20% from the previous year. The sheet price index stood at 137.4 points, up 0.89% for the week, though still down 3.29% year-on-year.
During this period, 17 out of 44 steel-related categories saw price increases, with 35 varieties rising—up from 20 the previous week. Meanwhile, only one variety fell, and eight remained flat. Iron ore prices rose by 10 yuan, coke prices increased by 10 yuan, scrap prices stayed steady, and billet prices climbed by 40–70 yuan.
Steel inventories across the country have been rising rapidly, with a six-week consecutive rebound. On February 1, the total steel inventory in 29 key cities reached 13,933,300 tons, a 4.76% increase from the previous week. Wire rod inventories rose 9.73%, rebar inventories increased by 7.56%, and coil inventories jumped 21.76%. Hot rolled coil inventories rose slightly by 0.51%, while cold rolled coils and other categories saw minimal changes.
Macroeconomic factors also played a role in shaping steel prices. In 2012, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 557.58 billion yuan. While some industries like agriculture, general machinery, and electrical equipment saw healthy growth, others such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling experienced steep declines. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development launched its first batch of smart city pilots, signaling new urbanization strategies. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing PMI for January stood at 50.4%, indicating continued stability in the sector.
On the global stage, world crude steel production hit a record high in 2012, with China accounting for nearly half of the total output. However, domestic steel producers faced challenges, with companies like Hebei Iron & Steel, Hangzhou Iron & Steel, and Anshan Iron & Steel reporting significant losses due to declining steel prices and weak demand.
In the construction machinery industry, December 2012 saw relatively flat growth, but sales performance improved significantly. The railway construction budget for 2013 was set at 520 billion yuan, highlighting ongoing infrastructure development.
Overall, the steel market remains sensitive to both domestic and international economic conditions, with expectations of gradual recovery in the coming months.
Taizhou TS HARDWARE Co., Ltd , https://www.shuwengroup.com