Compound fertilizer is stable or slightly upward

Recently, due to rumors of value-added tax and export tariffs, raw materials for fertilizers have stabilized or slightly increased slightly. Manufacturers generally believe that the prices of compound fertilizers will continue to rise steadily in the next year, with an increase of around RMB 50/ton, which is more optimistic about compounding next year. Fertilizer market conditions. Dealers are more tangled this winter, on the one hand, although feel that next spring prices may be affected by policy increases, but because both seasons are not busy season, and even the price cuts in the peak season, out of market uncertainties, dealers cautious operation On the other hand, although downstream distributors have always wanted to reverse the sales situation, farmers are not actively selling grain this winter, and it is difficult for downstream dealers to collect funds. Affected by this, the tightly funded dealers did not dare to make it safe. "Empty gloves fertilizer" move.

Raw materials for fertilizers are stable or rise

The industry generally believes that due to favorable policies, there will be little adjustment in the fertilizer market in the spring of next year. Due to the problem of overcapacity, there is a great possibility of minor adjustments. According to Liu Ruowei, general manager of compound fertilizer division of Hubei Xiangyun (Group) Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., from the current market trend, the prices of nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, potash fertilizers, etc. are basically stable, and some varieties even show an upward trend. Affected by raw materials, it is expected that compound fertilizer prices will be There will be no big fluctuations in the market.

When a reporter asked about the recent changes in raw materials, Liu Ruowei analyzed one by one: "N fertilizer, at present, the price of ammonium chloride in nitrogen fertilizer is the lowest point in the past decade, to the factory price of 300 yuan / ton, or even no filler material The price is high and it is estimated that there is no room for further decline.Urea current price is less than 1,600 yuan/ton, which is lower than the average price in 2014, and provincial agricultural companies have not yet stored a lot of reserves this year,especially if the value-added tax is levied or canceled next year. The window period, combined with the promotion of the domestic spring market, will lead to a rise in urea prices.From the perspective of the current price of phosphate fertilizers, the price of monoammonium phosphate is RMB 2100-2150/tonne. With the start of the winter storage market, the prices are higher. The firmness, which has already driven the price increase in the near future, together with the adjustment of window period and value-added tax, will provide strong support for the ammonium phosphate price.Although it is expected that the peak season will not be too prosperous next year, the probability of downward price will be lower. At present, the price of imported potash to the factory is 2180-2200 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the negotiated price for the import contract next year will be around US$320/ton, which is equivalent to that of the domestic price. Therefore, the price of potash fertilizer is basically locked at the current price, and there will not be much change.The above three factors analysis of this year's winter storage risk is not big, the price of compound fertilizer should be steady and rising. Take 45% chlorine as an example, The current cost is close to 1,800 yuan / ton, the recent manufacturers have released the price, the market outlook is basically maintained at this level or more."

Money haunts dealer market operations

This year's winter storage time has been postponed compared to previous years, and the front has been slightly elongated. At this stage, the downstream market has been loosened. The Northeast market is still the main battlefield for Dongkuo. Compared with other regions, the Northeast market is slightly active and may be a distance. Far-reaching factors, Northeast dealers are relatively early shots. Dealers in the Central Plains area are also prepared to take action at this stage, but the operation is slightly conservative. Agribusiness Manager Wang said: “At present, downstream distributors are not stable with fertilizers. Although there are rumors of value-added tax and export tariffs, coupled with the policy of interest-bearing manufacturers, many downstream dealers lack confidence in the market. Only a small number of dealers use their own years of market experience to make orders, but this is only a tentative market transaction. Basically, prepayments are mainly based, and there is no large-scale stocking situation.”

When a reporter asked about the reasons for this, Manager Wang explained: “The first is that the market volatility in recent years is too big, there is no law to follow, most customers can not see through the market, do not dare to gamble the market, had to properly take Some goods evaded market risks; Second, downstream creditors weighed on dealers' stocks. Many farmers did not rush to sell food this year, making it difficult for downstream dealers to collect funds, although dealers will decide to reverse serious debts each year. However, this change still needs a process. At present, it seems to have little effect. Therefore, this year's winter dealers are very passive in preparing fertilizer, and they have no money at all to dare to get goods.”

Reporter observation

In 2015, the tariff policy of the fertilizer industry was basically determined. Nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer will be eliminated during the busy season. The annual urea will be implemented at RMB 80/tonne, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium will be implemented at RMB 100/ton, the dibasic fertilizer and ammonium chloride will be implemented at 5%, and the ternary fertilizer will be subject to a 30% tariff policy; Ammonium is not taxed and the potash tax price is unchanged. Affected by this, the possibility of stable Growth of nitrogenous fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers is extremely strong, which has boosted the sentiment of downstream distributors at the end of this month. It remains to be seen whether the international market can reverse the situation in which the previous export window was suppressed. After all, our products are Quality and cost are not dominant. According to the reporter’s understanding, the inventory of downstream domestic fertilizers is also at a relatively low level over the years. Perhaps the domestic market next year may have “surprises”.