Domestic steel demand will not improve, steel market continues to fluctuate weakly

In the early days of September, the steel market typically enters its peak season, with increased demand and rising prices. However, this year has taken a different turn. The domestic spot steel market did not see an expected rise in the first week of "Golden September." Weak demand led to sluggish transactions, pushing steel prices into a downward trend. According to recent market reports, rebar futures have remained stagnant, and raw material prices, such as steel billets, have also seen slight declines. Spot steel transactions continue to be weak, with merchants adopting a cautious stance. Prices are consolidating lower, but the current inventory levels remain relatively low, reducing the likelihood of a sharp drop in steel prices in the short term. In the plate market, prices have continued to fall, with deeper declines observed across major markets. Prices in key regions like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin have dropped significantly, with weekly decreases ranging from 10 to 90 yuan. Transaction volumes remain low, and buyer confidence is waning. Market insiders note that even during the traditional peak season, downstream steel purchases remain limited. Hot rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with high-priced resources gradually shifting toward lower price points due to increased cashing-out behavior among traders. In the construction steel sector, prices remain weak, with Shanghai and Guangzhou seeing weekly drops of 10 to 50 yuan. Site procurement activity is still subdued, leading to reduced market volume. Some merchants are actively seeking shipments, resulting in more flexible pricing. The iron ore market is showing signs of weakness, with prices declining. According to reports, iron concentrate prices in Hebei have remained stable, but overall price support is weak. Imported ore prices have slightly declined, with the Platts 62% iron ore index falling to $137 per ton, down $2 for the week. Previously, import ore prices had surged above $140, prompting steel mills to adopt a wait-and-see approach and reduce purchases. Local miners noted that port inventories have increased slightly, though they remain at a relatively low level. If steel production picks up, mills may need to restock, which could limit the room for imported ore prices to recover. Analysts from industry institutions suggest that domestic steel prices have been on a downward trend since mid-August. While the average daily crude steel output in August declined, it remains at a high level, and the market's destocking process is far from complete. With no significant improvement in steel demand expected in the near term, merchant shipments will likely remain challenging. As a result, the steel market is expected to remain in a weak phase for some time.

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