**Abstract**
After a period of "recession tide" last year, polysilicon manufacturers who had been quiet for a long time are now entering a new phase of resuming production. The rising prices of polysilicon and China’s ongoing "double-reverse" investigation into imported polysilicon have become key drivers behind this revival.
Following the downturn in 2012, many polysilicon companies that had previously halted operations are now preparing to restart. According to industry sources, large-scale polysilicon plants with an annual capacity of over 3,000 tons are planning to resume operations by the end of April. Major players such as China Silicon High-Tech, Savi LDK, and Sichuan Ruineng are among those preparing for a comeback. Yan Dazhong, deputy general manager of China Silicon High-Tech, stated that the company aims to resume 6,000 tons of production by the end of April.
The "double-reverse" investigation initiated by China into polysilicon imports from Europe, the U.S., and South Korea is seen as a positive development for domestic producers. Industry insiders believe that the investigation could help Chinese companies gain a competitive edge by reducing the influx of cheap foreign polysilicon. However, the initial ruling date, originally set for early April, was postponed until late June, causing some delays in production resumption plans.
In September 2012, China Silicon High-Tech made the difficult decision to halt production. At the time, its capacity stood at 10,300 tons, second only to GCL-Poly. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, 90% of polysilicon companies were forced to shut down in 2012 due to low prices and intense competition.
By 2013, polysilicon prices began to recover, prompting companies to consider resuming operations. Data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that prices rose from 115,000 yuan/ton in December 2012 to 142,600 yuan/ton in March 2013—an increase of 24%. LDK's CEO, Zhai Xingxue, noted that higher polysilicon prices could lower downstream costs, and the company recently announced a hiring plan of 1,200 employees, signaling potential production recovery.
Another factor driving the resumption is the upcoming "double-reverse" investigation, which is expected to begin in early April. Although Chinese polysilicon manufacturing costs are about $10/kg higher than those of foreign competitors, the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties could narrow this gap. This has encouraged major domestic producers to prepare for a return to full-scale operations.
Sichuan Ruineng, a subsidiary of UK-based Renesola Ltd, is also planning to resume production in April. If both of its production lines are fully restored, it could reach an annual output of 10,000 tons.
Despite these developments, many small and medium-sized polysilicon companies are still waiting for clarity. The delay in the Ministry of Commerce’s preliminary ruling has caused uncertainty, leading some firms to temporarily suspend their resumption plans. According to one executive, the process of restarting production is time-consuming and costly, making it risky to proceed without clear policy signals.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation into polysilicon imports from the U.S. and South Korea in July 2012. During that period, significant amounts of cheap foreign polysilicon flooded the market, pushing domestic producers to the brink of collapse.
Recent import data shows that in February 2013, China imported 7,991 tons of polysilicon, a 17.7% increase from the previous month. The average import price dropped to $17.7/kg, significantly below the cost price of domestic producers, which exceeds $30/kg. This imbalance continues to challenge the viability of domestic polysilicon companies.
GCL-Poly executives admitted that even if they resume production in June, it may not be profitable due to the continued dumping of foreign polysilicon. Despite being one of the lowest-cost producers in the industry, GCL-Poly reported a net loss of 3.5 billion yuan in 2012.
In addition to the import issue, the recent reduction in photovoltaic on-grid tariffs has further dampened industry confidence. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed a new pricing policy that lowers the feed-in tariff for large-scale solar projects, potentially affecting demand for polysilicon.
Looking ahead, the EU is expected to announce its preliminary findings on Chinese solar products in June, followed by China’s own preliminary ruling on imported polysilicon. While these measures may reduce dumping, they could also impact downstream companies that rely heavily on European markets.
Industry experts agree that while there are signs of recovery, the sector still faces significant challenges, including overcapacity and pricing pressures. Until these issues are resolved, the path to sustainable growth remains uncertain.
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