WTO rare metal lawsuit or final ruling probability of losing China

Abstract After more than two years of competition, the WTO's rare metal lawsuits have recently come out. In June 2012, the United States, the European Union, and Japan officially filed a lawsuit against the WTO WTO Dispute Settlement Body for the export management measures for China's rare earth, tungsten and molybdenum. They mention...
After more than two years of competition, the WTO’s rare metal lawsuits have recently come out.

In June 2012, the United States, the European Union, and Japan officially filed a lawsuit against the WTO WTO Dispute Settlement Body for the export management measures for China's rare earth, tungsten and molybdenum. They proposed that China adopt export quotas, export tariffs, prices and quantity control for the above three varieties, in violation of China's commitments when it joined the WTO in 2001.

In March 2014, the WTO initially ruled that China’s export management measures for rare metal products were in violation of regulations. On April 17, the Chinese side appealed to the WTO. The Ministry of Commerce said that the general WTO will make a ruling within three months. According to media reports, the final ruling should be released in early August.

The industry believes that no matter what the final outcome is finally issued, China's loss is a high probability event. If there is any adjustment, it may only be in some details. It is estimated that in 2015, the rare metal varieties, tungsten and molybdenum, which are involved in the lawsuit, need to lower tariffs and cancel export quotas.

In order to prevent rare earth exports from returning to vicious competition and waste of resources, the Chinese government has been preparing countermeasures for the past two years, including vigorously rectifying illegal mining enterprises, forming rare earth groups, and raising taxes on rare earth resources. The first two jobs are basically formed. In order to raise the tax on rare earth resources, the government is demonstrating that the rare earth resource tax will be raised substantially based on the current standards to reflect the scarcity of resources and the environmental cost of mining. It is expected that the final tax rate will be introduced in the second half of the year.

China's rare metal resources are abundant, but the global rare metals market is mainly overseas. Since last year, the US economy has recovered strongly, Japan's EU economy is picking up, overseas demand for rare metals is rising, and China's economic growth is declining, thus forming a situation in which overseas prices are higher than domestic prices. In this context, letting out the rare metal exports may help pull demand and increase prices.

The reporter learned that the overseas price of tungsten and molybdenum is higher than domestic 20%. The supply of tungsten in China is relatively concentrated. After releasing overseas exports, the price of tungsten may be the first to benefit.

In terms of rare earth prices, since 2011, rare earth prices have continued to fall. The current market price is close to the level before the 2011 surge. Some rare earth enterprises have difficulties in operating, opening up exports or stimulating demand.

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