In a recent report published on April 23rd by IHS (Information Handling Services, Inc.), a global provider of critical information and services, it was revealed that the average selling price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules in European Union countries increased by 4% in March 2013. This marked the first rise in PV module prices in China since January 2009, signaling a potential shift in the market dynamics.
On April 25th, an industry analyst shared insights with the "Daily Economic News," stating that the domestic PV market is still far from reaching its peak. The sector is undergoing consolidation, and the recent price hike in the EU has limited impact on the Chinese market. According to the analyst, the real determinants for the domestic PV industry are the EU’s “double reverse†preliminary ruling scheduled for early June and China’s upcoming “double opposition†policy targeting imported polysilicon.
Looking ahead, the IHS iSuppli Solar Module Price Tracking Report predicts a 1% increase in April 2013, with an overall average rise of 4% over the next three months. A key driver behind this trend is the pending “double reverse†tax rate, which is expected to significantly influence pricing.
Glenn Gu, a senior analyst at IHS, noted that for years, PV manufacturers have struggled due to oversupply and declining prices. However, there are now clear signs that the market is beginning to stabilize. Supply and demand are gradually balancing, and PV product prices have stopped falling, starting to rise instead.
He also highlighted that sales in the Asian market have been steadily increasing, helping global demand catch up with supply. At the same time, the EU's anti-dumping investigation has negatively affected shipments from Chinese suppliers, further contributing to higher prices.
IHS forecasts that by the end of May 2013, the price of PV modules in China will reach 0.53 euros per watt (approximately 4.27 yuan per watt), representing a 5% to 6% increase from March 2013. The report also stated that all Chinese PV module manufacturers have seen price increases.
Additionally, a report from pvXchange GmbH, a German-based inverter company, indicated that in March 2013, the price of crystalline silicon PV modules in China rose by 3.8% to 0.55 euros per watt.
Despite these positive signs, the domestic PV market still faces uncertainties. Wuxi Suntech, a major Chinese PV manufacturer, recently filed for bankruptcy and reorganization, while the ongoing financial crisis has raised concerns about whether LDK could follow a similar path. For the first time in four years, PV module prices in China have risen—bringing a glimmer of hope to an otherwise struggling industry.
However, domestic market analysts remain cautious. They point out that the slight increase in EU PV module prices is not surprising, as the EU’s “double reverse†retrospective period for Chinese PV products runs from March 6th to June 6th.
Yin Lei, an industry analyst, explained that Chinese component manufacturers are worried about potential additional taxes once the EU announces the “double reverse†tax rate in early June. These taxes could apply to imports from the previous three months, leading to higher prices. With fewer low-cost Chinese components available in the EU, price hikes are inevitable. It is expected that EU module prices will continue to rise until the end of May, with future trends depending on the final outcome of the EU’s “double reverse†ruling.
Yin added that the EU price increase has little direct impact on the domestic Chinese PV market. The dawn of a strong domestic market is still distant, and industry consolidation remains ongoing. What truly shapes the direction of the Chinese PV market will be the EU’s preliminary “double reverse†ruling and China’s subsequent “double opposition†policy toward imported polysilicon.
Due to the traceability period, the second-quarter shipments from domestic component companies are likely to decline. As a result, many companies are focusing on expanding into new markets such as the United States, Japan, South Africa, India, and Latin America, while waiting for policy developments in the EU and China.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market has shown strong performance for solar energy companies. As of the market close on April 24th, JinkoSolar gained 15.34%, Big Brand New Energy rose 9.52%, LDK climbed 8.77%, Suntech Power increased by 8.55%, Artes Solar added 4.47%, JA Solar rose 3.95%, and Risen Energy saw a 3.14% gain.
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