In a recent report published on April 23rd, IHS (Information Handling Services, Inc.), a global provider of critical information and solutions, revealed that the average selling price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules in EU countries increased by 4% in March 2013. This marked the first price increase for such modules in China since January 2009, signaling a potential shift in the market dynamics.
On April 25th, an industry analyst shared insights with the "Daily Economic News," stating that the domestic PV market is still far from its peak, with consolidation efforts ongoing. The rise in EU module prices, while notable, has limited impact on the Chinese PV industry. Instead, the direction of the domestic market will likely be influenced by two key factors: the EU's preliminary ruling on its "double reverse" investigation at the start of June and China's subsequent "anti-dumping" policy on imported polysilicon.
According to IHS iSuppli’s "Solar Module Price Tracking Report," PV module prices are expected to rise by 1% in April 2013, with an overall increase of up to 4% over the next three months. The pending "double reverse" tax rate is considered a major driver behind this upward trend.
Glenn Gu, a senior analyst at IHS, noted that for years, PV module manufacturers have struggled due to oversupply and falling prices. However, recent data suggests that the market is beginning to stabilize, with supply and demand gradually balancing out. As a result, PV product prices have stopped declining and started to rise.
He added that growing sales in the Asian market have helped align global demand with supply. Meanwhile, the EU's anti-dumping measures have disrupted shipments from Chinese suppliers, contributing to higher prices. IHS predicts that by the end of May 2013, the price of PV modules in China could reach 0.53 euros per watt (approximately 4.27 yuan per watt), representing a 5% to 6% increase from March levels. All Chinese PV module manufacturers have reportedly seen price increases.
Another report from pvXchange GmbH, a German-based inverter company, indicated that in March 2013, the price of crystalline silicon PV modules in China rose by 3.8% to 0.55 euros per watt.
Despite these developments, the domestic PV market remains uncertain. Wuxi Suntech, a major Chinese PV manufacturer, recently filed for bankruptcy and reorganization, raising concerns about other companies like LDK. While China’s PV module prices have risen for the first time in four years, it remains unclear whether this signals a broader recovery or just a temporary shift.
Industry analysts remain cautious. They note that the slight price increase in the EU is not unexpected, given the "double reverse" investigation period, which runs from March 6th to June 6th. Yin Lei, an industry expert, pointed out that Chinese component manufacturers fear additional taxes may be imposed if the EU announces its final "double reverse" tax rates in early June. This could lead to a reduction in the supply of low-cost Chinese components in the EU market, inevitably driving up prices.
The price rise in the EU is unlikely to have a significant impact on the domestic Chinese market. The dawn of a strong domestic PV market is still distant, with industry consolidation continuing. Analysts emphasize that the real determinant of the domestic market's future will be the EU's preliminary ruling on the "double reverse" investigation and China's response to imported polysilicon.
In addition, due to the traceability period, shipments from domestic component companies in the second quarter are expected to decline. To cope, Chinese PV firms are advised to expand into new markets such as the U.S., Japan, South Africa, India, and Latin America, while waiting for policy changes in the EU and China.
Meanwhile, solar stocks in the U.S. have performed well. As of the close on April 24th, JinkoSolar gained 15.34%, Big Brand New Energy rose 9.52%, LDK climbed 8.77%, Suntech Power increased 8.55%, Artes Solar added 4.47%, JA Solar rose 3.95%, and Risen Energy gained 3.14%.
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