After the impact of the financial crisis, the machine tool industry in the first half of 2010 saw a "blowout" market. According to the statistics of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, from January to June, the industry's total industrial output value was 242.42 billion yuan, up 41.4% year-on-year; product sales value was 235.87 billion yuan, up 42.0% year-on-year; profit was 10.91 billion yuan, up 78.5 year-on-year. %; the output value margin was 5.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year (the latter two are January-May data).
What is quite interesting is that the industry's profit growth in the first half of the year was as high as 78.5%, far exceeding the output value. In this regard, Wu Berlin cautiously believes that the profit growth in the first half of the year is so large, related to the substantial increase in sales during the same period, may also be related to the adjustment of the financial period, is not sustainable, will fall in the third quarter.
In this regard, Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Industry Association, said that there are three reasons for not optimistic about the continuous increase in profits: the price of the first machine tool itself has not risen, and even some products are still selling at a reduced price because of fierce market competition; Second, in the first half of this wave of blowout market, the sales structure of the market has a resurgence phenomenon, that is to say, the low-end product market rebounded strongly, which obviously will reduce the profit rate of the industry; third, the cost of machine tool products is rising, for example Many raw materials and labor costs are rising. These reasons obviously do not support the increase in profits far exceeding the increase in output.
Heavy machine tools will usher in a downturn in the market
In stark contrast to the sharp rise in output value and profits, the heavy-duty machine tool industry, which has been popular in recent years, has seen a decline since the first quarter.
At the moment, the days of heavy companies don't seem to be very good. Wu Bolin said that several key enterprises in the heavy-duty machine tool industry are still full of production tasks. Because of the manufacturing cycle of heavy-duty products, many orders have not been delivered in the previous year or two, so the current industry output and sales are still There has been no change, but orders for the Ming and the following years have been significantly reduced.
For some enterprises that have entered the heavy-duty machine tool industry, especially those enterprises that have formed production capacity when the market is weakening, their technical strength is relatively weak, their brand appeal is not strong enough, and the pressure they face can be imagined. .
In this regard, Wu Bolin said that such fluctuations in the heavy-duty machine tool market are normal. There are two reasons for the severe market situation: First, the rapid growth of the heavy-duty machine tool market in recent years has caused the demand for most heavy-duty products to be released. The lifespan of heavy-duty products is very long. Many products may be used for more than ten years or even twenty years. Therefore, the heavy-duty machine tool market cannot always maintain a high growth rate. It should be returned to normal in the current state. Second, a feature of the heavy-duty machine tool industry is that the market demand for heavy-duty products is decreasing, but the manufacturing scale of heavy-duty products is increasing substantially, which also exacerbates competition in the entire industry and makes the market situation even less optimistic.
Analysis of the future development trend of the heavy-duty machine tool market, Wu Bolin believes that at present, while the country introduces the economic pull policy, it pays great attention to the structural adjustment problem, and some investment and financing are controlled. For example, low-grade steel, metallurgy, small cement and other projects have been Stopping, this has impacted the heavy machine tool market to a certain extent; in addition, the Auto Parts industry, which has a promising future, and some high-tech industries that produce high-precision, ultra-precision products, are not among the user base of heavy-duty products. Therefore, the heavy machine tool market may then have a more severe low tide than the normal return state.
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