From the end of April to the beginning of May this year, the plastics price price has been adjusted after short-term consolidation on a small platform that has hit a new high, and the overall trend has shown a downward trend. The decline in
plastic prices is a manifestation of its weak fundamentals, and its trend is generally consistent with crude oil. At the end of August, crude oil rebounded strongly after hitting a new low in this round, which drove the plastics price to rebound sharply. Combined with the fundamentals of the crude oil market and the fundamental analysis of the plastics industry, we believe that it is difficult for the plastics to continue to rebound in the late stage, and the overall trend is still in a downward trend.
Polyethylene industry supply pressure is still relatively large
In 2015, the global polyethylene production cycle was restarted. This round of capacity is expected to last until 2018. There is a surplus of polyethylene in the world. It is expected that the excess will increase in the later period. Due to the considerable profit of domestic oil-based LLDPE film materials, the current petrochemical profit theoretically has 1,400 yuan / ton, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of petrochemical enterprises to produce linearity. At present, PE operating rate is maintained at a high level. PE enterprises in North China and Sinopec PE industry started. The rate is around 90%.
From the point of view of equipment maintenance, there is no equipment maintenance in the market, but there is a device restart plan. Some polyethylene equipment will be restarted from the end of August to the beginning of September, including: Shanghai Petrochemical (600688, stock bar) 250,000 tons of low-voltage line, expected in early September Restart; Yangzi Petrochemical 250,000 tons linear, is expected to restart in early September; Pucheng clean energy 300,000 tons full density, is expected to restart in early September. With the restart of the larger capacity polyethylene plant, the supply pressure in the future will increase.
Downstream peak season demand is difficult to surprise
September and October are the traditional consumption seasons for agricultural film and packaging film, but this year's overall downstream order situation is not as good as in the same period of the previous year. In the context of the macroeconomic downturn, many commodities in this year showed a light consumption pattern during the peak season, and prices fell. Mainly, we are not very optimistic about the traditional peak season of the plastics industry. As of the last week of August, the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises in the northern regions of China remained at around 60%, and downstream end-users wait and see. Most of them just need to adopt a small single purchase model. The start of other domestic plastic products and packaging film has not changed much, and it is difficult to have surprises. The operating rate is maintained at around 60%-70%. In September and October this year, domestic holidays were more than in previous years. For petrochemical inventories, the pressure to increase inventory is not to be ignored. The pattern of oversupply in the plastics industry will continue.
It can be seen that the adjustment pattern of plastics price starting from the end of April and early May of this year is still not over. The surge in oil prices at the end of August drove the plastics price to rebound sharply. However, the oversupply situation in the crude oil market is difficult to change, and the rebound of crude oil is difficult to sustain. The plastics industry itself is also facing a pattern of oversupply, and the overall situation is still in a downward trend.
Jiuzhi Plastics Network  Â
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