After experiencing explosive growth in the past two years, whether the PV market can maintain rapid growth in 2018 has received much attention. As an emerging industry with large investment scale, strong action and obvious spillover effect, the government plays an important role in its development. Recently, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Regular Conditions for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2018)" (hereinafter referred to as "Specifications"), further raising the threshold of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and requiring strict control of new photovoltaic projects that simply expand production capacity. The lessons from the previous round of PV overcapacity are still fresh in my memory. From 2009 to 2011, driven by the global PV market, especially the European PV market, PV companies supported by local governments are rushing to expand aggressively, resulting in a serious overcapacity in the industry. In 2012, Wuxi Suntech, the largest PV company in China, was on the verge of bankruptcy. In July 2013, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industryâ€, which laid the foundation for the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. In order to improve the overall competitiveness of the industry, the government has introduced a series of regulations on the regulation of access to the photovoltaic industry. Among them, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Regulations on the Standardization of the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry" in October 2013, and in 2015 the "Regulations on the Standardization of the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry" Revised and released the "Regulations for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2015)", the version released this time is the third revision. The "Code" pointed out that strict control of new photovoltaic manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, and guide photovoltaic enterprises to strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs. Newly built and rebuilt polysilicon manufacturing projects, the minimum capital ratio is 30%, and other new construction and expansion and expansion of photovoltaic manufacturing projects, the minimum capital ratio is 20%. The "Code" pointed out that photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises should meet the following requirements according to product types: 1. The polysilicon project has a scale of not less than 3,000 tons per year; 2. The annual production capacity of silicon ingots is not less than 1,000 tons; 3. The annual production capacity of silicon rods Not less than 1000 tons; 4. The annual production capacity of silicon wafer is not less than 50 million pieces; 5. The annual production capacity of crystalline silicon battery is not less than 200MWp; 6. The annual production capacity of crystalline silicon battery components is not less than 200MWp; 7. Year of thin film battery components The production capacity is not less than 50MWp; 8. The annual production capacity of the inverter is not less than 200MWp (the micro inverter is not less than 10MWp). Since 2016, due to the accelerated expansion of the domestic PV distributed market and the rapid rise of foreign emerging markets, China's PV industry has ushered in a new round of explosive growth since 2016. At present, photovoltaic giants such as Tongwei, GCL, Central and Longji are accelerating their capacity expansion. For example, Tongwei announced an investment plan of over 30 billion yuan last year. In January of this year, Longji announced its three-year expansion plan. Based on the 150 GW wafer capacity at the end of 2017, it will strive to achieve 28 GW of monocrystalline silicon wafer production by the end of 2018 and 45 GW by the end of 2020. After the announcement of the 8 billion yuan expansion plan at the end of last year, the medium-sized Dongfang Risheng has signed a new round of 2 billion yuan agreement. It is not difficult to see that with the continuous release of photovoltaic production capacity and the slowdown in the growth of international and domestic new markets, China's PV market is at risk of imbalance between supply and demand. In particular, it is worth noting that in the future, due to trade protection, the prospect of “going out†of photovoltaics is not optimistic. In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and has become the main product targeted by trade protection in some countries. The new round of trade surveys is more concerned about Chinese companies, and trade frictions are frequent, hindering the pace of China's photovoltaic “going outâ€. The industry believes that at present, most domestic enterprises can meet the capital and technical requirements of the "Code", and the actual impact on these enterprises is very limited. However, the "Code" controls the expansion of production volume and guarantees the expansion of production quality, which is conducive to suppressing low-end production capacity, preventing a new round of overcapacity, raising the technical threshold of the industry, eliminating backward enterprises, and ultimately hope to promote technological progress and cost reduction, and accelerate the industry reshuffle. .
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