Last week (April 11 - April 15) Alluminium fell sharply. The upward trend of the previous trading week continued to rise on Monday, reaching a high of 1985.5 dollars on Tuesday. With the strong selling of funds, aluminum prices fell rapidly and fell to 1842.5 U.S. dollars on Thursday. Aluminum prices rose slightly on Friday, closing at $1,864/ton, down $83 from the previous trading week. Volume was 572,362 lots, a week-on-week increase of 225,024 lots; open interest was 427,989 lots, an increase of 11,423 cycles a week; inventory was 535,500 tons, a week-on-year decrease of 7,700 tons. Last week, the U.S. economic indicators were mixed. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Tuesday that the trade deficit in February expanded to a record high of 61.04 billion U.S. dollars, which was significantly higher than the analysts forecast of 59 billion U.S. dollars. This was a marked improvement over the revised deficit of 58.5 billion U.S. dollars in January. The monthly budget report released by the US Treasury Department last Tuesday showed that the federal government’s budget deficit in March was 71.23 billion US dollars, slightly lower than the same period of last year was 72.91 billion US dollars, significantly lower than the record high of 113.94 billion US dollars in February this year. According to a report released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury on Friday, net U.S. capital inflows decreased from US$ 92.5 billion in January to US$ 84.5 billion in February. From the above data, it can be seen that the U.S. trade deficit continues to hit a new high and it is expected that with the gradual appreciation of the U.S. dollar in March, the U.S. trade deficit will continue to increase. With the U.S. government’s efforts to cut its budget, the U.S. budget deficit has decreased. Although net capital inflows are sufficient to make up for the current month’s trade deficit, there have been signs of a significant slowdown. The unsatisfactory economic indicators have dampened the confidence of traders to do more, and further contributed to the decline in London's metal market last week. In terms of supply and demand, last week's aluminum production increased its output. Aman Sohar Aluminum wants to build a 650,000-ton smelter. The smelter has a total investment budget of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars and is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in 2008. In the first quarter of this year, Russia produced a total of 897,546 tons of primary aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The world’s third-largest aluminum producer, Rusal Aluminum Corporation (RUSAL), announced on Thursday that in the previous quarter of 2005, the company’s total output of primary aluminum and aluminum alloy was 668,418 tons, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year, of which aluminum production was 165,012 Tons, an increase of 25.6% over the same period last year. Statistics released by Marubeni on Tuesday showed that at the end of March 2005, aluminum inventories at ports in Yokohama, Osaka, and Nagoya in Japan totaled 300,600 tons, an increase of 11.9% from the previous quarter. The aluminum plant increased production and expanded production, and the increase in inventories in Japan’s ports constituted a significant negative factor for Alluminium, further promoting the decline in aluminum prices. From a technical point of view, last week's sharp decline in the aluminum has a technical precursor, Lun aluminum after a 10-year high on March 16 this year, there has been a clear down market. In spite of slight reversals during the period, the market is still running down the road in general. Last week, Erlenium aluminum sold back to the top of the downtrend channel and was sold off again. It ended up with a medium-weight Yinxian. Aluminium's failure to break the downtrend channel made traders even more pessimistic about Lenin's back-to-back situation. Under the pressure of the main short selling last Wednesday, the long line of defense was easily defeated, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of Sanlun Aluminum last week. On the other hand, since the rebound of Lon Aluminum on March 24, there has been a clear lack of strength. In recent days, Lon-Aluminum is running the right shoulder of the head and shoulders, and last week, the peak of Erleng's aluminum fell, indicating the end of the right shoulder rebound. Once the technical structure of the head and shoulders has been approved by the majority of traders in the market, it will be very unfavorable for the next trend of the aluminum price. The sharp decline of San Lun Aluminum last week was the beginning of an accelerated decline after the end of the head and shoulders. The unfavorable macroeconomic and supply-demand relations have laid the foundation for the decline of Aluminium, but the main reason for the sharp decline in aluminum prices last week was the liquidation of the fund. Among them, the trading volume of Lon-Aluminum was kept above 200,000 hands on Wednesday and Thursday under the pressure of the fund's open position, which is relatively rare in the history of Lumber Trading. The decline in the volume of Masukura fully demonstrated that the active selling of Wednesday's aluminum was very clear, and the pattern of recent weakness in aluminum prices has already taken shape. From the perspective of the daily chart, the current London aluminum closed for 4 consecutive days, the long popularity has been a great blow. The continuous slump in the short-term has also enabled the effective release of short-term potential energy, and it is expected that LMEL will face oversold rebound in the near term. As the aluminum weakness is very obvious, despite the oversold rebound, but the intensity is very limited, after the rebound is expected to London aluminum will be a small Yindie. Therefore, it is recommended that more than one order should be closed in a timely manner.
