European copper premium water is expected to rise 50% this year

Abstract According to a Bloomberg News report on July 6, European copper premiums are projected to increase by 50% this year, even as consumption in the region declines. The price of copper at the Port of Rotterdam has risen to $122.50 per ton, up from $115 in June and a significant jump from $80 at the start of the year. This upward trend reflects ongoing supply constraints and strong demand dynamics across the continent. The surge in premiums is largely driven by limited availability of scrap copper and tighter controls on LME stock withdrawals. In Antwerp, Belgium, copper stocks have nearly doubled this year, with premiums rising sharply over the past month due to supply shortages in late June and sustained demand. The current premium range now stands between $120 and $130 per ton, compared to $100 to $130 last month. LME data shows that Antwerp holds 91% of Europe’s copper stocks, and according to Bloomberg, it could take more than 100 days to withdraw inventory from the city. Meanwhile, the supply of scrap copper remains constrained. Many consumers are holding onto their inventories due to lower prices, while weak industrial activity—especially in construction—has further tightened the market. CRU analyst Lloyd noted that the lack of scrap copper supply in Europe is a key factor behind the rising premiums. Additionally, the London Metal Exchange (LME) recently proposed a major overhaul of its inventory system, aiming to reduce long waiting times for metal extraction. If implemented, the plan would streamline operations and prevent new backlogs from forming. The proposal targets warehouses with more than 100 days of queued metal, requiring them to maintain higher outbound volumes than inbound ones. This move is expected to improve efficiency and support market stability in the long term. As the European copper market continues to face supply-side challenges, these developments may play a critical role in shaping future price trends.