Abstract On October 13, 2015, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Huang Junping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, introduced the import and export situation in the first three quarters of 2015 and answered questions from reporters. CCTV reporter: We noticed that outside the first three quarters of this year...
On October 13, 2015, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Huang Yuping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, introduced the import and export situation in the first three quarters of 2015 and answered questions from reporters. CCTV reporter: We noticed that both foreign trade import and export declined in the first three quarters of this year, and asked Director Huang to analyze the reasons for the specific decline.
Huang Weiping: In the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade import and export has dropped significantly, especially the export has also experienced negative growth. The preliminary analysis mainly has the following factors: First, the pace of world economic recovery is slow, and global trade continues to be sluggish. At present, the overall recovery of the world economy is slow, or faltering, only maintaining low growth. A few days ago, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the world economy will grow by 3.1% this year, down by 0.2 percentage points from the forecast for July this year. The slowdown in the world economy has also led to continued sluggish global trade. According to the latest data from the WTO, in the first seven months of this year, global export value fell by 10.9% year-on-year, and continued to fall by 0.3 percentage points from the first half of the year. Under such a global background, China's foreign trade, especially exports, has been greatly affected, and the growth rate has dropped significantly. According to our monthly survey of 3,000 export enterprises, in the first three quarters of this year, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the decrease in new export orders decreased from 43.5% at the beginning of the year to 55.2% in September, and the proportion increased further.
Second, the overall cost is high, and the traditional competitive advantage is obviously weakened. In our survey, some labor-intensive enterprises indicated that rising labor costs are the main reason for reducing the competitive advantage of enterprises, which restricts enterprises from further expanding production and exports. In the first three quarters of this year, China's traditional labor-intensive products exports, clothing and footwear exports have seen a significant decline, down 6.6% and 4.2%, respectively, deeper than the overall increase in China's exports during the same period. At the same time, international data shows that in the first eight months, the market share of China's apparel products in the United States and Japan dropped by 0.2 and 0.35 percentage points respectively. The market share of China's footwear products in the US and Japan dropped by 3 and 3.4 respectively. percentage point. The RMB exchange rate is another important factor in increasing the export cost of enterprises. According to the calculation of the Bank for International Settlements, from January 2014 to August this year, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated by 10.6%, of which the appreciation of the euro by 17.3% and the appreciation of the yen by 9.6%, which has weakened the competitiveness of China's export commodities.
Third, international commodity prices continued to fall, pulling down import growth. Since July 2014, the CRB index of the US Commodity Survey, which represents international commodity prices, has fallen sharply. The price of crude oil has dropped from around US$100 per barrel in 2014 to less than US$50 per barrel. The import price of iron ore has been In 2014, $130 per ton fell to around $60 per ton. At the same time, the CRB index continued to fall in the third quarter after a brief rebound in the second quarter of this year, and the year-on-year decline in September exceeded 15%. According to estimates, the total price of imports in China in the first three quarters of this year fell by 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the first half of the year. In terms of import volume, the physical quantity of China's imports in the first three quarters decreased by 3.8% overall, narrowing by 1.6 percentage points from the first half of the year. It can be seen that the decline in China's import value has continued to deepen this year, mainly due to the price decline in the international market.
Regarding the recent decline in China's export growth rate, I also want to give a set of data for a global and some economies. According to the latest data released by the WTO, it is denominated in US dollars. In the first seven months of this year, China's exports fell slightly by 0.8%, while the EU, US and Japanese exports fell by 14.3%, 5.4%, and 8.4%, respectively. Our latest data show that China's exports fell by 5.5% in August, while the United States and Japan fell by 10.4% and 13.7%, respectively. The above data shows that compared with other major economies, China’s exports have performed better this year.
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