Aluminum outlook is expected to get out of the rally

On April 19th, Shanghai Aluminum Futures opened higher and fell lower, closing slightly lower, and Wei Hongjie, an analyst at Bent Futures, believes that Shanghai aluminum futures are expected to step out of the rally. On April 19th, the Shanghai aluminum futures prices fell back slightly, revealing a unique trend in the full red. Last week (April 11-15) Shanghai Aluminum's main contract price rebounded after quickly falling back to the line of 16,600 yuan, forming a flat range of 16600--16800 yuan. As the spot price gradually stabilized above 16,700 yuan, since the beginning of this week (April 18-22), Shanghai Aluminum’s monthly contracts have started to form a small inverse price spread, that is, in recent months, the premium situation has changed, and the spot price has also turned to flat water. The structure of the spread of far-month premiums formed since the second half of the year has changed. This shows that after the gradual advent of the consumer season, spot prices tend to rise steadily, but after the repeated declines in the price of London Aluminum, market capitalization expectations for the Shanghai aluminum market have been greatly reduced. However, at present, the spread of Shanghai aluminum futures price is still not stable, and the spread between the prices of major contracts does not exceed 10 yuan. The price of the period is relatively balanced in this region, and the market is facing the process of price divergence again. Judging from the current spot production cost, the conditions for the substantial downward price divergence will not be met. Once the period price rises again, the status of the long-term premium will be restored. From the perspective of operation, the flexibility of the futures contract price will be better. , should be the focus of attention. Judging from the daily BOLL orbit of the Shanghai Aluminum Index, Shanghai Aluminum's futures prices have been at the front line of the China Rail in the past two days. Under weaker conditions, the price may revert to the next track and then rise again. Under strong conditions, it will directly revert to the middle track. On, and test again on the upper track area. From the perspective of Lun aluminum, since Lun’s aluminum price continues to close long cross shadows near the 144-day moving average, there will be a rebound in demand, and even if we sit back in the 1830–1810 area, we will be The short-term pull back creates a pull-back confirmation action around $1890. It seems that after the short-term refusal to follow the downtrend, the Shanghai aluminum future price will show a follow-up rebound against the aluminum. Operational recommendations, in July Shanghai aluminum continues to break through the 16,500 yuan loss, short-term positions to wait and see.