Launching urbanization strategy, photovoltaic targeting, trillions of markets

Abstract The impact of “double-reverse” in Europe and the United States has enabled PV companies to focus more on the domestic demand market, and urbanization is becoming a shareholder's wind. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission took the lead, and the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other more than 10 ministries...
The impact of the "double anti-" in Europe and the United States has enabled PV companies to focus more on the domestic demand market, and urbanization is becoming a shareholder's wind.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission took the lead, and the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other more than 10 ministries and commissions are preparing the draft of the National Plan for Promoting the Healthy Development of Urbanization (2011-2020), suggesting the construction of more than 20 urban agglomerations. More than 180 cities above the prefecture level and more than 10,000 cities and towns will drive a blueprint of 40 trillion yuan investment in the next decade.

For the photothermal photovoltaic industry, urbanization will be directly beneficial. Cities and towns will become the main battlefield for energy conservation and emission reduction and green growth. A large number of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly new energy applications will bring opportunities.

According to the National Energy Administration's goal of increasing the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” to 35GW, it means that 10GW of new PV installations will be added each year from 2013 to 2015. "As long as there is appropriate policy support, only photovoltaic building integration will drive the market of 10 trillion yuan." Li Hejun, chairman of the board of directors of Hanergy Holding Group, said: "The spring of China's PV application has just started."

Urban strategy

For urbanization, PV companies have said that distributed power generation will become a "tool" for occupying the rural market.

In mid-April, Hanergy built the world's largest single-film thin-film solar power station in Hainan, Qinghai, with a total installed capacity of 50MW (1GW=1000MW), which is widely used in distributed generation, civil consumption and ground photovoltaic power plants.

According to the National Energy Administration's "Notice on Declaring the Scaled Application of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation", the system idea of ​​large-scale application of distributed power generation: the development of "roof" distributed power stations in the central and eastern coastal areas, and inland in the central and western regions. The region encourages the construction of distributed solar power generation systems in urban industrial parks and large industrial enterprises.

In this context, photovoltaic distributed applications are widely available. It is reported that in 2010 China's total installed capacity is 1055GW, and in 2011, PV installed capacity was only 3GW. The market generally expects that the installed capacity of PV will reach 15GW this year. According to the current price level, it can drive 150 billion yuan of investment.

Li Hejun predicts that with the maturity of photovoltaics going to the countryside, the market for photovoltaic buildings in the next 10 years can drive 10 trillion yuan of investment.

In response, a person in charge of a photovoltaic company in Jiangxi said in an interview that the cost of solar power generation is decreasing as a clean energy source. Compared with the cost investment of energy such as petrochemical coal, the solar energy conversion rate is improved and the cost control advantage is highlighted. "But at present, the technical conditions of distributed generation are not mature. Although the market prospect is broad, it still needs the perfection of policies and supporting facilities to truly seize the opportunity."

Compared with the road of photovoltaic urbanization, the application of light and heat is very familiar. Recently, Mu Ge announced that in addition to the three-dimensional structure inherent in urban engineering, urban retail, and township retail, urban engineering has been included in the core business of Four Seasons Muge.

Li Jun, president of the Four Seasons Muge Group, believes that urbanization will build a broader platform for solar energy and building integration, as well as solar water heating projects and thermal heating projects for urban new and renovated public buildings. "Compared with other clean energy sources, solar energy may be the first step, and enterprises should do a structural reorganization and layout." It is reported that it has built nearly 2,000 first-class dealers and more than 20,000 second-tier dealers in China. Covers counties (districts) and most townships.

Policy horn

The urbanization strategy of enterprise ride has been recognized by the government. Recently, Shao Ning, deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, mentioned in an internal speech that “the industry caused losses due to overcapacity. We have already seen it in wind power, polysilicon and other industries. As long as it is a technology industry that Chinese companies can master, it has appeared. Overcapacity. In the past, China’s economy was in a period of high growth, and there was no serious result of overcapacity. However, if the company fails to expand in the domestic market and is unable to enter the international market in the future, the problem of (capacity expansion) will continue for a long time. Time, and the performance will be sharper."

Shao Ning bluntly said that big countries should use their domestic markets to cultivate and protect their own businesses. "The current problem is that domestic consumption hotspots are lacking, and there are fewer infrastructure projects with returns, which makes the space for the government to start domestic demand smaller. Moreover, we are faced with various market changes. First, the cost rises and the competitiveness of the original industry declines; Second, there are problems with the source of technology, and industrial upgrading is more difficult. Third, the current market is saturated, and new markets still need to develop themselves."

In order to start the urbanization market, the functional departments are formulating relevant support policies.

At present, it is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is taking the lead in organizing a plan to “photovoltaic to the countryside”, aiming to promote the large-scale entry of solar photovoltaic power into the rural market and take the “winding” of future urbanization.

In addition, the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Solar Water Heater Industry” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (Draft for Comment) has given clear signals, and the concentration of solar thermal industry will be further enhanced. By 2015, it is necessary to cultivate three annual sales. More than 3 million leading companies. It will not only promote its technology upgrades and guide consumption, but also encourage the urbanization of solar energy at the policy level.

At the same time, the opinion draft also requires that the proportion of solar water heaters in the entire water heater industry (including electric water heaters, gas water heaters, and solar water heaters) will exceed 40% in the next three years, and the market share of energy efficiency grades above two grades will reach 50%. According to the monitoring data of Zhongyikang, the retail sales of solar water heaters in 2012 decreased by 32.26% year-on-year, and the retail sales decreased by 30.17%.

The reporter learned that the National Bureau of Statistics data predicts that by 2020, China's urban and rural housing construction area is about 89 billion square meters. If the area of ​​the east, south and west walls is 15%, the roof area is 20% and the 10% photoelectric conversion rate (currently the highest mass production conversion rate has reached 15.5%), there are about 1 billion kilowatts of installed capacity in the country. Calculated according to the average annual solar power generation of 1300, it can replace 30% of the annual electricity demand of the whole society and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20%.

In this regard, Li Jun predicts that the solar industry will continue its development in 2012 and maintain sustained and steady growth. “With the implementation of the rules for urbanization measures, the major breakthroughs should be in 2014 and 2015.”

He analyzed that if China's urbanization rate reaches 60% of the overall plan by 2020, it will mean that 10 million rural people will transfer to the city every year, which also indicates that cities and towns will become China's energy-saving emission reduction and maintain green growth. The main battlefield. “Urban immigration will change people's consumption behavior. The urban population consumes 3.5 times more energy per year than the rural population. The urban population consumes three times as much electricity as the rural population. From the perspective of consumption habits, urban and rural areas have a strong sense of conservation. There is a clear initiative in the use of new energy."

Be cautious

However, for the urbanization strategy of solar thermal photovoltaics, there are still voices of concern in the market.

Taking photovoltaics as an example, Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Xinsheng Securities Power Equipment New Energy, told reporters that the current conditions for the promotion of photovoltaics in the rural market are immature, and there are no supporting measures and experiences in photovoltaics, such as system construction and technical problems. "Especially in the urbanization construction, the problems involved in the transformation of the line often face demolition. On the other hand, the electricity sales contract is sold to users. PV companies often cannot strictly follow the rules of the use rules like the grid company. In this process The guarantee of policy is crucial."

A more important issue is the test of the payback period. The price subsidy proposed in the "Photovoltaic On-grid Price Consultation Draft" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission was not satisfactory. According to the opinion draft, the PV on-grid price in Xinjiang is adjusted to 0.85 yuan/kWh, and the underground areas in Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are adjusted to 0.75~0.85 yuan/degree, and the Tibet area is lowered to 0.95 yuan/degree. Compared with the previous price of 1 to 1.15 yuan / kWh, the latest price has been greatly reduced.

Wang Haisheng believes that according to the previous subsidy price, the dynamic investment payback period of PV power plants is 5-8 years, and according to the latest subsidy price, the dynamic investment payback period of PV power plants will increase to 13-16 years, which may hit those plans. The enthusiasm of entering the photovoltaic power station business enterprises.

A PV company in Jiangsu said that the PV industry itself is a high-risk and high-yield project. Generally, there are 4 to 5 times the income gap between good and bad projects. Therefore, the distributed power generation mainly relies on government subsidies. "Once distributed power generation goes to the countryside, if there is no timely and effective subsidy policy and market guidance, it may lead to the differentiation of downstream projects, and the competition between enterprises for good projects will be strengthened, and a situation of polarization will be formed."

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