Steel owner melody in 2013: capacity utilization side by side inventory

Steel owner melody in 2013: capacity utilization side by side inventory Driven by the increase in the utilization rate of production capacity and driven by the supplementary storage period in the peak season, we expect the 2013 iron and steel industry's profitability level will tend to improve, but subject to overcapacity, iron ore earnings will improve better than steel smelting.

Capacity utilization is expected to increase slightly in 2013. In 2013, compared to 2012, the slowdown in investment led to a slight fall in the growth of domestic demand. However, the growth rate of new capacity has declined faster, which is expected to drive capacity utilization. We expect the actual steel consumption in 2013 will reach 715 million tons. Without taking into account the stock market, crude steel production in 2013 will reach 744 million tons. However, due to the destocking of steel traders in 2012 has reached the limit level, taking into account the restocking market, the crude steel output in 2013 will reach 754 million tons of output, and the capacity utilization rate will increase by approximately 1-2% from 2012. If it is assumed that the restocking situation will take place during the two traditional peak seasons in spring and autumn, through the analysis of scenario assumptions, the capacity utilization rate in the peak season is expected to increase by 3.1%-6.7%, with a maximum of 82.5%.

It is expected that in 2013, the price of iron ore will rebound from the end of 2012, and the rebound in ore prices may be higher than steel prices. If the capacity utilization rate of the steel industry increases in 2013, it will drive steel prices to continue to rebound compared to the fourth quarter of 2012. As a whole, the steel price may show up in the pulse period due to restocking in the high season. In terms of ore, the iron ore inventory levels of steel mills are currently low. In 2013, taking into account the recovery of inventory levels, there will be an increase in demand for restocking by around 4%. In 2013, crude steel production is expected to increase by 5-6%. It is expected that the demand will increase by 10% throughout the year. In addition, according to the scheduling of major mines, the supply of iron ore was limited to increase in 2013. We analyzed the scenario assumption that there was a slight gap in the supply of iron ore in 2013. In the short term, the strong position of mines relative to steel mills has still not occurred. change. The average price of the 63-grade CIF in 2013 is expected to be US$130.

The profit level of the iron and steel industry will improve, but excess capacity will inhibit improvement and iron ore earnings will improve better than steel smelting. In 2013, the iron and steel industry will see a slight increase in domestic demand growth rate and make up stocks. The utilization rate will recover, and profits will be concentrated in the stock market for a few months in the peak season. However, due to overcapacity in the steel industry, steel prices have limited room for improvement in earnings. The mine is still a strong player relative to the steel mills. We think iron ore companies will hopefully benefit again.

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